Posted by kliuless
https://www.metafilter.com/209255/Not-Quite-Order-66
but a massive stormtrooper expansion to corral the 'enemy within'...
The Worst Part of Trump's Big Bill Is Getting Almost No Attention - "The bill is effectively a blank check, funding pretty much every aspect of the administration's ramp-up of enforcement, detention, and surveillance: hiring nearly 20,000 additional immigration agents across Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection, constructing more border walls, building detention facilities for tens of thousands of additional people, and so on. It would take everything we've seen so far—the
targeting of activists for their speech, masked agents grabbing people off the street,
sudden flights to Guantánamo or out of the country, ramping up detentions—and crank it to 11.[
1]
Beyond that, the bill furthers the transformation of federal law enforcement toward a focus on immigration enforcement specifically. The Cato Institute estimates that immigration and border funding would equal about eight times the FBI's entire budget and 36 times more than tax and financial crimes enforcement. That funding disparity is compounded by Trump's penchant for pulling agents from other functions to the all-encompassing immigration dragnet: For months now, thousands of federal agents who work on everything from child abuse to money laundering have been reassigned to raiding businesses in search of undocumented workers. Meanwhile, ICE is spending so wildly on its crackdown that it may run out of money next month—unless Republicans manage to pass this bill.
These elements should be slam dunks for Democrats as they fight the bill without majorities in either chamber. The masked and unidentified agents trawling around in tactical gear, breaking windows, raiding Home Depot, dragging away soon-to-graduate high schoolers, and arresting protesters? Republicans want tens of thousands more of them, and quickly, which will almost certainly mean lowering hiring standards (just as Trump did during his first term when quickly trying to ramp up the immigration agent head count).
Trump and his minions want to cram tens of thousands more people who mostly have either no criminal contact or minor infractions into slapdash new facilities as they already struggle to provide basic safety and living standards in existing detention spaces while illegally preventing oversight...
[A] massive expansion of Trump's police—nay, military—state... this is only tangentially about immigration. Immigration enforcement is just the pretext for, and the mechanism to execute, an autocratic power grab to crush civil society and democratic constraints, as we're seeing now in Los Angeles. Democrats don't even have to tease out this argument; officials in the administration reportedly are talking about using the resources provided by the legislation to make an L.A.-style assault happen in every oppositional blue city, a prospect Trump apparatchik Stephen Miller is practically frothing at the mouth over.
Deportations to Add Almost $1 Trillion in Costs to the 'Big Beautiful Bill' - "H.R. 1 immigration enforcement spending is unimaginable."[
2]
The House plans to distort this wildly out-of-whack law enforcement system beyond recognition. H.R. 1 appropriates $168 billion to agencies whose primary purpose is immigration enforcement. It adds $1.2 billion to all other law enforcement for the Secret Service. This sum comes on top of the $33 billion, meaning that if this bill passes, about $200 billion will be made available for immigration enforcement starting in FY 2025...
The Trump administration desperately wants to spend this money immediately. It is even plausible that they could blow through this money by next year and demand more from Congress. It is already stealing from other agencies and the military to do enforcement, and it is currently spending money for ICE appropriated for the end of the year. The bill appears to confirm this more aggressive timeline by mandating the hiring of 10,000 ICE agents for a cost of $8 billion—$800,000 per agent. It costs ICE about $200,000 in compensation per agent per year (p. 12), meaning that $8 billion is only enough to employ these agents for four years. The same math applies to CBP personnel.
A more realistic position is that the Trump administration will use almost all this authority over the next four years. In this scenario, the government will spend nearly $80 billion annually on immigration enforcement in 2028. This is nearly half the amount all the states spend on local policing nationwide to improve public safety, and the $80 billion would be five times more than all other federal law enforcement combined. Nearly the same situation would occur in 2029 under the CBO's assumptions when 78 percent of all federal law enforcement would be immigration. Either way, immigration enforcement would dwarf the rest of federal law enforcement...
H.R. 1 will cause a drastic reduction in the immigrant population.
The CBO does not directly estimate how all of this spending will affect immigrants.
- ICE is required to hire at least 10,000 new agents, which would more than double the number of Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) agents.
- The overall ICE budget would triple by 2028.
- The ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations budget would nearly quadruple by 2028.
- The detention budget would more than quadruple by 2028.
- The "transportation and removal" budget would increase fivefold.
Currently, about 50,000 people are detained, so this means that ICE would likely be detaining more than 200,000 people at a time once the funding kicks in. Most of the detention capacity already exists. ICE just needs to sign the contracts, which it would do immediately. During Trump's first term, there were about 10 detentions in a year for every detention bed available, implying that at least 2 million people would be detained annually under H.R. 1.
- CBP would get $5 billion to construct and expand its own detention facilities. This year, it received just $50 million to construct Border Patrol facilities. Border Patrol has the capacity to detain 12,000 people at a time now. We can reasonably expect this number to at least triple under this bill and be immediately co-opted for mass deportation efforts.
- H.R. 1 also appropriates $3.4 billion for state and local immigration enforcement efforts. CBP would also receive at least 8,500 new CBP agents, including 3,000 for Border Patrol.
- The bill would spend $46.5 billion on border wall construction.
All this money is fungible, and with the exception of the border wall funding for political reasons, almost all of it will ultimately be used for mass deportation. That includes the so-called "border security" money. The administration is already diverting border agents to interior operations, such as prowling around Home Depots and farms.
In addition, the bill imposes an estimated $65 billion in fees on immigrants seeking to stay in the United States. This raises revenue, but it will effectively price out most applicants in immigration proceedings from receiving legal status to remain here. This will lead to more deportations and "voluntary" exits. It is also important to understand that ICE and CBP are already regularly arresting and removing legal immigrants, so massively increasing their activity would deter many legal immigrants from coming or staying in the United States.
Combined with Trump's policy changes that expedite removal for immigrants in the interior, we can reasonably expect that:
- Deportations would increase fivefold to over one million per year;
- Voluntary exits triggered by the deportations (both from families whose parent/spouse is gone as well as others fearful of what will happen) would increase proportionally to 500,000 per year;
- Illegal immigration and asylum seekers would not return to the trend from its currently historically low level; and
- Legal immigration would decline by at least 15 percent, due to deterrence and fewer people able to sponsor them.
Altogether, over the five years when we expect the funding to be in effect, we can predict net immigration to fall by about 8 million, with an additional million lost in later years (again, keeping with Congress' constructed reality that none of the increased spending will persist)... Hopefully, the Senate will recognize these costs and abandon the House's flawed approach.
The White House Wants to Numb Voters to ICE Chaos - "Trump portrays Democratic-led states and cities as un-American, aiming to normalize treating them like the enemy."
Even more ominously, Trump and his aides often describe Los Angeles and California as occupied territory that must be "liberated"— either from their own elected officials or undocumented immigrants. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem took the latter approach last week immediately before her security detail tackled California's US Senator Alex Padilla when he interrupted her press conference. "We are staying here," Noem declared, "to liberate this city" from what she called its "socialist ... leadership."
Brendan Nyhan, a Dartmouth political scientist who studies democratic erosion, told me that he found Noem's remarks even more troubling than Padilla's manhandling. "Noem essentially described the mission as one of regime change," Nyhan said. Trump extended that argument nationally in his Sunday social media post when he insisted the leaders of Democratic cities "hate our Country."
Having defined blue states and cities as something apart from, and threatening to, the American mainstream, the Trump administration is now subjecting them to tactics appropriate to an enemy force.
Trump orders ICE to step up deportation efforts in Democrat-run cities - "President Trump has ordered Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to 'expand efforts to detain and deport' undocumented immigrants in Democratic-run cities."
Democrats who have been arrested, detained or charged under Trump - "The arrests and charges of elected Democrats have led party leaders to warn the president is driving democracy to the edge. But the shows of force, including during anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles last week, have also given Trump's MAGA base and advisers exactly what they wanted."
Americans split on deportations, oppose workplace raids, Pew finds - "54% disapprove of increasing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids on workplaces where people who are in the U.S. illegally may be working, while 45% approve. 60% of Americans oppose suspending most asylum applications, while 39% support the measure. 59% of respondents oppose ending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for immigrants who fled war or other disasters, while 39% support the policy change."
Trump's Violent Outbursts Worsen as Parade Fiasco Sinks In - "As Trump's rhetoric toward blue cities gets more menacing amid his autocratic military parade and a terrifying assassination, a scholar of authoritarianism says our slide into political violence is a warning sign."[
3,
4]
VA hospitals remove politics and marital status from guidelines protecting patients from discrimination - "During the 2024 presidential campaign and throughout the early months of his second term, Trump repeatedly made threats against a host of people whom he saw as his political antagonists, including senators,
judges and then president Joe Biden. He called
journalists and
Democrats 'the enemy within.'"[
5]
Trump uses LA protests to redirect dissent from policy failures to the 'enemy within' - "Critics see deployment of national guard as an authoritarian flex by a strongman who has relentlessly trampled norms."
Trump is coming for the 'enemy within' - "To underline, Trump's claim is that the left is anti-national, extremist and violent. The protesters, in turn, are defending due process, including for the millions of immigrants in Trump's sights. The US republic's future could hinge on which side is identified with the rule of law."
Who would bet against Trump in the battle for public opinion? Less than 200 days into his second term, he has trampled over more laws and ripped up more precedents than any leader in US history. He has enriched himself and his family with overseas crypto sales and golf resort deals, launched a war on leading universities and medical institutions, ignored serial court orders to give deportees legal rights, declared, paused and partially resumed economic war on the world, and targeted his enemies with investigations and stripped them of security protection. Trump's assault on democratic norms has been breathtaking in scale and speed. Yet his approval rating is still at 45 per cent.
The Democrats have been helping Trump along. The party is split on how strongly it should fight Trump's deportations. The principled stance would be to do whatever it takes to uphold the rule of law. Deportations should happen if due process is followed. By contrast, putting troops on America's streets poses a mortal threat to federal democracy. That America's left speaks with many tongues is helpful to Trump, whose party listens only to his. Did you witness Republican outrage over Trump's threat of targeting Elon Musk's business empire? Neither did I. Ditto for his assault on America's leading law firms, foreign students, media conglomerates and scientific research.
Here is where the LA situation is likely to lead. ICE is Trump's crack agency. Its agents are raiding restaurants, law courts, retail centres and day labour assembly points across the country. Trump's "big, beautiful [budget] bill" will earmark $185bn for immigration enforcement, including ICE, which is more than the annual military spending of the UK and France combined. Wherever ICE raids trigger protests, Trump can send in the troops. Expect Chicago, San Francisco, Denver and other cities to feature soon.
Do not expect Trump to back down. Stephen Miller, his militant henchman and deputy chief of staff, wants 3,000 immigrants a day deported and brands opposition to ICE raids as "insurrection". Expelling that many people will require a lot of armed manpower. The economic bill will show up in the form of higher food prices and home-construction costs. The toll on the US rule of law and social stability will be incalculably higher.
Mass Deportation . . . Except at Hotels? - "Mr. Trump prefers to talk about 'CRIMINALS' because he knows that's where he has broad public support. But his federal agents are out raiding job sites full of non-criminal, hard-working people who are contributing to the American economy. The real policy isn't what Mr. Trump says, but what his agents do on the ground."
As Part of a $45 Billion Push, ICE Prepares for a Vast Expansion of Detention Space - "The Trump administration has tapped 41 vendors to compete for lucrative federal contracts."[
6]
The real reason Trump is suddenly ordering immigration raids - "The House spending bill, which is now under consideration in the Senate, allocates $185 billion for immigration enforcement, including $27 billion for ICE operations such as raids. That's an increase of about $150 billion over the current funding levels for immigration enforcement."
Republican Spending Bill Throws $156 Billion at Defense Contractors - "Experts say its military spending isn't grounded in strategy, would line the pockets of defense corporations, and would redirect the military to domestic deportations."
The House version of the bill proposed $150 billion in new Pentagon spending, and the Senate Armed Services Committee proposed an even higher $156 billion. Since the two chambers are still working out the details ahead of a July 4 deadline from Trump to pass the bill, it's not clear exactly what the final number will come out to be. Even before those numbers are finalized, though, it is already clear that the bill will cut $300 billion from SNAP and almost $800 billion from Medicaid.[7]
[...]
And then, of course, there are the immigration provisions in the bill. The House version of the bill includes $5 billion for immigration-related spending, while the Senate bill allocates $3.3 billion for sending troops to the border and detaining migrants in military facilities. Those numbers are on top of tens of billions in immigration enforcement spending proposed by the House Judiciary and House Homeland Security Committees.
My colleague David Dayen has written that these spending provisions could bring ICE raids and crackdowns on protests like those we've seen in Los Angeles to more American cities. And from a national-security perspective, sending the military's personnel and resources to the border distracts them from their actual job descriptions. Many of the bill's provisions just advance the administration's goals for an increased military presence domestically, and for more weapons and more spending on the companies they've allied with, like Palantir and SpaceX.[8]
Trump's Moves Toward Martial Law Fulfill MAGA Insiders' Desire for American Caesar - "President Donald Trump's illegal moves to turn the U.S. military against American citizens on American soil are the latest and most dangerous actions in a scheme by MAGA figures to erode constitutional checks and balances and allow Trump to impose his will on the country by asserting dictatorial powers..."
On the Separation of Powers and Judicial Supremacy - "Most regrettably, Trump is apparently planning to take out his exasperation by appointing to the bench political hacks who commit to rule in his favor. If he implements that policy, our concern will be with executive supremacy, not judicial supremacy. Any relief afforded by our constitutional separation of powers will depend upon the emergence of a congressional backbone."
Senate Judiciary Unveils Its Own Plan To Curtail Court Orders - "In our system of limited government, is it prudent to remove some of the last constraints that prevent the federal government from embarking on an unlawful course of action and then keeping it up for a long period, even if judges correctly foresee that it will be ruled illegal in the end? Are we willing to accept that this would give the federal government an incentive to stall and complicate matters to prevent the entry of permanent injunctions? Should we be doing this at the very moment an administration
has adopted wide-ranging lawbreaking as a purposeful shock-and-awe strategy? It doesn't seem prudent to me."
What Musk can learn from Ma and Khodorkovsky - "Expropriation? Exile? It all sounds very un-American. But this is Trump's America."[
9]
In countries as different as Russia, China, Saudi Arabia — and now the US — oligarchs who have developed independent political ambitions have been forcibly reminded where the real power lies.
The triumph of politics over money might come as a surprise to both Marxists and overconfident capitalists — who believe that politicians will always dance to the tune of the super-rich.
But, as Mao observed, power flows from the barrel of the gun. Control of the organs of the state — the army, state prosecutors, tax authorities — still ultimately counts for more than billions in the bank.
US Allies and Adversaries Are Dodging Trump's Tariff Threats - "Donald Trump has a clear, uncomplicated notion of how things should work. He tells everyone what to do, and they do it. In this world, law firms stop representing his accusers. Universities cede him control of admissions and curriculum. Europe and China swallow his tariffs. Corporations move their factories to the US. Ukraine surrenders to Russia. Denmark hands him Greenland. Panama hands him the canal."
To the president's daily fury, the world outside his head isn't always cooperating. Harvard University has forcefully fought back against his attempt to take charge of the school. After some major law firms buckled under his threats, others are now resisting. Trump has whipsawed between escalation and retreat on tariffs when other nations have refused to go along. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored his demands to end the bloodshed in Ukraine, and for months Chinese President Xi Jinping all but gave him the silent treatment. Fired federal workers, immigrants targeted for deportation without due process and others who've sued to challenge his actions are winning support from courts, including some presided over by Trump-appointed judges.
"Where do these ... three Judges come from?" Trump asked on Truth Social after a federal trade court temporarily paused some of his tariffs. "How is it possible for them to have potentially done such damage to the United States of America? Is it purely a hatred of 'TRUMP?' What other reason could it be?"
It could be separation of powers. Or rule of law. But there's also a less lofty possible reason for some of the visceral opposition at home and abroad to so many of Trump's plans. Threats and coercion, Trump's go-to negotiating tactics, can lead to worse results than less combative politicking—or no deal at all...
The Reagan-Appointed Judge Fast-Tracking Trump to Trial - "Judge William G. Young's long career has been punctuated by high-profile cases and outspoken advocacy for the judiciary's value and fact-finding power."
https://www.metafilter.com/209255/Not-Quite-Order-66
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